Buddies, suddenly there's so much fun going on in space that my glasses almost cracked! 🤯 Space weather changed from a boring zero to a hundred and fifty faster than a bartender at Šírava can pour borovička over the weekend! 🚀 And all of this thanks to not one, but a full TWO sunspots, which are spewing eruptions like my neighbor's fireworks on New Year's Eve. 🎆 Plus, we have a coronal hole aimed straight at our globe. Let's take a closer look at this, because this is a bigger bomb than an unexpected free beer! 🍻
Let's start with all those solar flares our little Sun produced yesterday and today. 🌞 Three of them are extra interesting. We already reported on the X1.8-class flare from yesterday. This event was immediately followed by another X-class flare! Seriously, the Sun is going hard like a Slovak hockey team in the final period! 💪
That second X-class flare reached a value of X1.1 and peaked yesterday at 22:01 UTC. 🕙 But watch out, this flare confused a lot of people like trail markers on a hiking path in the fog! 😅 It's easy to automatically attribute this latest X-class flare to sunspot 4274. But it wasn't her! ❌ This event came from a region we have yet to see, from behind the southeastern edge. So yes, we have TWO sunspots capable of X-class activity here! A double dose of radiation like when you have two borovičkas at once! 🥃🥃
Let's jump to today - the most significant event was a long-duration M7.5 flare that peaked at 11:18 UTC. 🔍 What does this mean for geomagnetic conditions on Earth? Neither of these regions is in an ideal position aimed at Earth, but can we expect at least some glancing hit? 🤔
The short answer: of course yeah! 💯 First let's look at the coronal mass ejection released during the X1.8 flare. Most of the material is heading properly to the northeast, as we expected, but there's a very faint outline of a halo effect. 👀 It's hard to see, but it's there like the last euro in your wallet before payday. Don't expect a big impact, but a glancing hit is possible either late on Thursday November 6 or early on Friday November 7. 📆
Today's M7.5 flare from sunspot 4274 is also eruptive and the story is practically the same for this coronal mass ejection. 🔄 We can see another asymmetric coronal ejection with a full halo effect leaving the Sun, but the halo outline is better defined compared to the coronal ejection from the X1.8. I'm more confident than steady after three beers 🍺🍺🍺 that this M7.5 ejection will reach Earth and cause a more pronounced arrival, probably late on Friday November 7. 🌠
What complicates the situation is the fact that we also had a coronal hole turned toward our planet, and it's hard to predict how the fast solar wind streaming from this coronal hole will affect those two coronal mass ejections. 🌪️ The situation is more complicated than Slovak politics after elections! 😂
This coronal hole was facing our planet yesterday and the solar wind from it could start reaching our planet tomorrow, November 6. 📱 This combined with two possible coronal ejection arrivals means we could see periods with geomagnetic storm conditions (weak G1 to moderate G2) over several days from tomorrow until Saturday November 8. 🌈 Also note that sunspot 4274 remains capable of strong eruptive activity and every minute is rotating into a position more face-on to Earth, so any future flares will have a good chance of also being aimed at Earth. 🎯 We could experience several days of increased solar and geomagnetic activity! So if you happen to see someone with a camera and tripod in the parking lot at the bar at Šírava 🏞️, don't worry, we're just waiting for the aurora! 📸
A trans-equatorial coronal hole is heading toward Earth. 🌍 The increased solar wind could arrive in about 3 days. So pull out your cameras, charge your batteries and check the forecast at ziara.sk, because a proper cosmic party is coming and you don't want to miss the front-row tickets! 🎫✨
Your Astronomer Cassandra ✨
