We're opening July in style, buddies! ☀️🔥 The Sun decided it wouldn't be as boring as a Monday morning at work, and it really spiced things up for us. Sunspot number 4479 has been growing here like yeast in a cake, and now it's turned into a seriously complicated Beta-Gamma-Delta region. And yesterday at 20:50 UTC it fired off an X1.1 solar flare (R3, meaning a strong class) at us. 💥
This flare was no wimp, it was eruptive and shot a coronal mass ejection (CME) into space. 🚀 Imagine it like when you open a shaken-up beer, just on a cosmic scale. 🍺
The second spot that's giving us wrinkles
But we also have to keep an eye on sunspot number 4478. 👀 It also has a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration, but it's actually even more complicated than its sister 4479. This complex magnetic configuration with multiple delta spots has already produced a bunch of M-class flares today. 🌟 In short, the Sun's mood today is like Šírava after a heavy rain, it's just spraying out of it. 😅
Will that CME reach us, or will it miss us?
But back to our star of the evening, the X1.1 flare. ✨ It was accompanied by type II and IV radio bursts, which nicely confirmed for us that the CME really did launch. 📡 In the images from the SOHO/LASCO coronograph we can see the ejection with very faint halo outlines. 🌀 And here's the catch, buddies: the ejection is clearly heading north of the Sun-Earth line, so only a minimal piece is aimed our way. 🙄
So honestly? We think that in the best case the impact on Earth will just be a passing slap. 👋 Nothing earth-shattering, no geomagnetic show of the century. More like a tap on the shoulder from a neighbor who wants to borrow the lawnmower. 😂
Our forecast versus the official agencies
Of course we realize that our opinion somewhat clashes with the official forecast. 🤷♀️ That one actually talks about an impact on Friday July 3, and even with geomagnetic storm conditions at the G2 level! ⚡ The solar wind models predict a much more direct hit, which honestly surprises us. 🤔
But we hope the models are right and on Friday July 3 we'll enjoy a nice impact with a proper aurora over Slovakia too. 🌌💚 But don't be surprised if that cosmic slap ends up not being as rough as the official agencies promise. The universe is simply like a Slovak woman, you never know exactly what you'll get. 😏🍺
So watch the sky, keep your phones charged, and above all, click on ziara.sk so you don't miss any aurora! 📲✨ I'm keeping my fingers crossed that it really shines on Friday! 🎆🥳
Your Astronomer Cassandra ✨
